The Fifth Man

At this point, the Yankees pitching staff, and team for that matter is nearly set. However, one big question mark still looms in the midst of all the offseason activity, who will be our fifth starter? Cashman has said that the Yankees would be willing to fill that spot with an internal option, though there are remaining free agent starters on the market. It is a questionable strategy at this point, considering the pitching woes of our youth, especially last season, but let’s take a look at what the Yankees have, and what is available.

Internal Options:

Alfredo Aceves:
A very interesting option indeed, Aceves flew through the minors last season, and landed on the big stage on the last day of August. In his brief time in the Bronx he was pretty impressive, giving the Yankees 3 quality starts out of his four, and going at least 5 innings in 4 of his 6 appearances. His ERA was low considering he gave up 25 hits and 4 homers in 28 innings, but if he can manage to keep the runners he lets on base from scoring, that’s all we need. Possessing a low 90’s fastball, a solid curveball, a good changeup, and a cut fastball of sorts, look for Aceves to show up in spring ready to make the team. At this point, he may be the best and most polished internal option the Yanks have, and if I had to pick anyone to be our fifth man, it would be Aceves.

Phil Hughes:
One of the most highly touted pitching prospects in the Yankees system, probably since Brien Taylor, Hughes has thus far been far from spectacular, though there is still a lot of potential in him. It doesn’t seem as if he will be ready to take on the duties as the Yankees fifth man in 2008, or at least to start the season. He is coming off two straight years derailed by injury and inconsistency and may need some time to recuperate and regain momentum. Hughes took a step in the right direction in the AFL, pitching lights out for most of his starts, not to mention his fastball regained velocity. If Hughes dominates in AAA for 5 or 6 starts, and our #5 man is struggling, he should get the call. A mid-90’s fastball combined with a curveball, slider, changeup, and newly developed cutter, could potentially make the 23 year old Hughes a weapon. He remains a big question mark in my book, at least until he can show consistent dominance or at least decent pitching again.

Ian Kennedy:
Kennedy is another candidate for the fifth spot in the rotation for the Yankees. Like Hughes, he has failed to translate his minor league dominance into the majors. His brief showing in the 2007 season showed promising signs, but it all crashed down for him in 2008 with bad performance and injury. From what I’ve seen, Kennedy is a very polished pitcher with a good variation of pitches, and fairly consistent mechanics. His problem in 2008 appeared to be associated with a lack of confidence in his stuff and a fear of bat on ball contact. He was almost too cautious when pitching to hitters, which led to high walk totals, and nearly a 1/1 K/BB ratio. His 69 innings in AAA showed that he still has good stuff, as he once again dominated on the minor league level. Hopefully with a confidence boost and some experience under his belt, Kennedy could perhaps be an impact player. Again, I say Kennedy starts the season in AAA, and under circumstances of showing good pitching on his part and a bad fifth man in the Bronx, he could get the call.

Phil Coke:
Coke is quite an intriguing option. His 2008 work out of the bullpen showed a truly dominant side of him with a mid-90’s fastball, a nasty slider, and a decent changeup. It would make sense for the Yankees to add another lefty into the rotation, but with expense to the bullpen, the move becomes questionable. Coke would most likely not be the same pitcher in the rotation as he is out of the pen, which is usually the case. His fastball velocity would most likely dip to around 90, his slider would slow and movement may be reduced, and the lack of a good enough third pitch might begin to show. Additionally, Coke had some kind of arm issues last season, as you may remember he was a component in the Nady and Marte deal until the Pirates didn’t like something during his physical. With this potential injury and a somewhat weaker repertoire, Coke seems better suited to be a reliever. Interestingly enough, rumor has it that Cashman even told him to prepare to be a starter at spring training. Coke is an option, but I’d rather keep him as a reliever.

Kei Igawa:
Potentially the Yankees worst signing in the past decade, Kei Igawa, still remains an option to be the fifth starter. He was bombarded in his debut year in the Bronx, and thus has spent almost all the rest of his time in the pinstriped uniform of Scranton. In his time there he has managed to put up some decent numbers. He carries a mid-three ERA in his AAA career, and solid walk and strikeout rates. Again it would be nice to have another lefty in our rotation, but it isn’t a necessity. Igawa has been far from impressive and may be destined to spend his years in American baseball on a AAA team. Igawa is an option for the fifth spot, but he wouldn’t be my first, second, or even third choice, unless he really shows something.

Jason Johnson:
At this point, I don’t really even consider him an option. He has atrocious career numbers, and quite frankly, I’d rather have Donovan Osborne come back and pitch in the number five spot. Unless Johnson somehow finally figured to put everything together at age 35, don’t expect him to make the team.

External Options:

Andy Pettitte:
Being a free agent, Pettitte is an external option, as the Yankees would have to add him to the payroll. A long time Yankee, he would be a great option. He has proved his consistency by winning 12 games in 13 of the last 14 seasons and 200 innings in almost every season he’s pitched. The problem with Pettitte is not his abilities or attitude, it’s the cost. After spending nearly $500 million dollars and cutting payroll, the Yankees are looking for a cheaper short term option. Pettitte, however, feels deserving of a contract in excess of what the Yankees offered him, probably somewhere between $12-16 million. After not accepting the Yankees offer, and the Yankees rightfully unwilling to raise the offer, Pettitte may be forced to sign with a more desperate team or just retire. In addition to the financial issues, there was also signs and talks of injury with Pettitte at the end of last season, I believe it involved the elbow. With the high price demanded for a potentially injury risk, I think the Yankees would be smart to shy away from Pettitte, unless he takes their current and fair offer.

Pedro Martinez:
I’ve always been a fan of this guy, aside from when he threw Zimmer to the ground. Pedro is a tremendous pitcher with the combination of great stuff and a competitive attitude. Yes he is aging, injury prone, and his stuff is deteriorating, but he surely still has something left in his tank. An incentive laden deal, much like the one given to Penny and Smoltz, would be a perfect fit for Pedro, if he accepted. As a number five man, Pedro could get the rest he needed and provide more than almost every other fifth man. Though many people doubt him, and dislike him due to some incidents, Pedro is a good pitcher with the right mind set, and even at age 37 would be a fine option.

Freddy Garcia:
Garcia is another option for the fifth spot, mainly because he will come fairly cheap. If he is offered a contract, it should be based on meeting certain innings and start quotas and bonuses for the innings he pitches over what they expect him to. Garcia has been out for nearly the entirety of the last two seasons, so it’s hard to know how badly the injuries affected his stuff and his conditioning, especially considering he had a shoulder injury. He has had a good career and proved to be consistent enough, not to mention he is only 32. The Yankees should watch him work out and try and gauge what he wants for a contract, because if he could be had for a one year deal, with the previously mentioned contract, I think it would be a good high risk high reward move.

Ben Sheets:
If I had to pick someone to sign, Sheets would be my guy. He has stuff that could make him worthy of a number 1 or number 2 job, but his health has always held him back. Sheets pitched well in 2008 and would have been more demanded had he not had an end of the season injury. At just age 30, Sheets could be a great sign. If he would accept anything from $10-12 on a 1 year deal with an option, I would go for it, however, that may be unrealistic. From what I can see, none of Sheets most recent injuries are that serious, and if he is your fifth man, missing a few games here in there wouldn’t be a big deal. Sheets is an option, but at this point he seems like a long shot.

Randy Wolf:
The 32 year old lefty is coming off a decent year in the NL. Wolf has pitched well in his full seasons, but like Sheets, he has also been plagued with chronic injuries. I’ve only seen him pitch a handful of times, but I think he has good enough stuff to get by in the American League, especially as a number five. Additionally, Wolf has major league experience under his belt, which is always a help. I’m not aware of the contract he is looking for, but again if he would accept an offer in the Yankees range, he wouldn’t be a bad choice.

There are some other options out there, including those by trade, but I don’t want to speculate while it is pretty quiet. When it comes to other free agents, I felt that they aren’t a good option, or may be asking for a longer more lucrative deal than the Yankees would offer. Overall, it seems like Cashman is set on going with internal options, but I’m not particularly crazy about the idea. With AJ Burnett and a limited Chamberlain in the rotation, I think it would be almost necessary to pick up another veteran pitcher. The risk of injury is something the Yankees are going to have to take if they sign another free agent, but if the contract is short and inexpensive, it won’t be a big deal. If I had to pick an internal option at this time I’d pick Aceves, and as a free agent I’d pick Ben Sheets. There is still plenty of time until spring training, and until the season starts, we are left to ponder.