AJ Burnett: Cashman’s Folly?

When the Yankees shelled out nearly a half of a billion dollars in about a one month span, and pitcher AJ Burnett was one of the recipients. The now 32 year old righty, received a 5 year $82.5 million deal from the Yankees in December after his “breakout” year in 2008. Many Yankees fans are in favor of this signing and look to Burnett to be an essential part of the 2009 season and beyond, however there is evidence that may suggest otherwise.

From the standpoint of his mentality, his stuff, and his 2008 season, Burnett may seem like the perfect fit for New York. There is no arguing that he has electric stuff and wants to win every time he gets the ball. The argument is more focused on the question of will he be able to go out there every fifth day on a constant basis to provide what he has to offer? Along with all of his success, Burnett’s career has been plagued with injury, and not minor ones. In 2003 he had Tommy John surgery, after elbow inflammation persisted through the early season. The surgery delayed the start of his 2004 season, though he returned strong. The injury bug left Burnett alone until the 2006 when he was again hit, and twice. The first injury was related to remains from his initial Tommy John surgery that became irritated and inflamed in his elbow. The second injury was again related to the elbow and put him on the DL for nearly a two month span. As he had done in the past, when he did pitch, he pitched well. His 2007 season got off to a good start, he completed the majority of the season up until mid-June, when he was struck with shoulder issues. This seemed to be more a chronic issue, as he spent time on the DL in two consecutive months for what seemed to have been the same injury. This injury is the most concerning out of the long list, due to the fact that it involved the shoulder. Sure, elbow issues are bad, but shoulder problems have a higher probability of ending a pitcher’s career. Though Burnett’s 2008 season was DL free, he endured a heavy workload just a season after having spent time off due to a shoulder injury. He made 34 starts and pitched over 220 innings, both being firsts in his career. An injury prone 32 year old coming off his body’s most taxing year shouldn’t be what anyone wants to hear. In addition to having so many injuries, the trend of them doesn’t favor the Yankees. Every year he has pitched over 200 innings (which is just 3 times in 8 seasons), he has spent the following year on the DL for at least part of the season, if not missing the whole season. Some of the other injuries also followed lighter load seasons, such as those of 2007, which isn’t reassuring in any sense. It just seems that Burnett can’t stay healthy, and if his 2009 season takes the same path as every other year, he will be in for some potentially time consuming and serious injuries.

Contractually, the signing of Burnett really doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Above are mentioned facts of his career, which has consisted of plenty and too much time off due to health related issues. The Yankees gave a 32 year old, oft injured pitcher, a five year deal. Could you recall the last time the Bombers gave a lucrative somewhat long deal to a much younger pitcher with similar concerns? Yes, you probably guessed it, a fan favorite, Carl Pavano. It’s a stretch to consider Burnett in any sense to be like Pavano, except for their health histories. The thought of having another disastrous contract like that of Pavano still looms, however. A Burnett injury will be a constant threat to the pitching staff of this team for the next five seasons, unless his toughness and body have finally adjusted to being a major league pitcher, this, however, seems quite unrealistic. His final season in pinstripes will be at age 36, which is a little old for any pitcher (excluding Randy Johnson). His career is close to crossing over the line into the statistical declination period, as that drop begins for most pitchers between the ages of 32 and 34. In coming years his stuff will begin to decline and he will have to adjust by learning new pitches, or changing pitch selection, not to mention he will become even more prone to injuries. The money is not so much the issue when it comes to Burnett’s contract, it’s the years. A five year deal is a long deal for anyone who is 32, especially someone like him who carries such a great risk. Finally his spot in the rotation is also a bit of a concern. He has the stuff of an ace, but is currently slotted in at number two in the rotation. That, to me, seems to be pushing it, there is little doubt that Wang can keep his arm healthy and pitch another solid 200 innings, but there is doubt surrounding that same ability of AJ Burnett. If you ask me, he should our third man, he may be able to get a little extra rest, and would surely prove to be the best number three pitcher in the majors.

AJ Burnett undeniably has the stuff, mind set, and natural ability to compete anywhere, especially in New York. He has the potential to win many a games in the Bronx and become a big performer and star, but it is all based on how healthy he can stay. For most pitchers with stuff like his, the sky is the limit, but for Burnett, it seems to be more like his health is the limit. Possessing a career filled with dominance and injury, could the recent signing of AJ Burnett be Cashman’s folly?