Depth and Defense

Depth Misconception

In the last week every baseball site from the humble blog to the modern day media powerhouse has shot out its season predictions and projections, boldly stating who they think will be left standing come October. Some do so with rationale, while others appear to have closed their eyes and ran their finger down a list of teams to arrive at the Mets as Sports Illustrated did.

As misguided as I believe that projection is, it is not the one that perplexes me the most. It will probably not come as a surprise that I disagree with any prediction that has the Red Sox as the division or wild card winners. Now I don't fundamentally disagree with the idea that the Red Sox can win the division or wild card. What I have an issue with the is the thinking behind their decision, primarily with the point that the Red Sox will win due to pitching depth.

The common phrase nowadays is that you can never have enough pitching. Fair enough pitchers will get injured and it is nice to have someone to step in. However when the players you have to step in are old and injured (Smoltz), completely unproven (Tazawa) and an anomaly (Buchholz) then I hardly see it as a distinct advantage. If the Red Sox end up using any of the 3 for an extended period of time then it is because something has gone very wrong with the starting 5 they have in place just now.

Same goes with the bullpen, where there are only so many innings to go around and where more often that not you don't get a whole pen chipping in during key late and close game situations. It always ends up coming down to 3 guys max, so spare me the list of names after Papelbon, Masterson and Okajima. Anyone outside of that trio likely wont see time unless injury occurs, and if and when it does then granted they have someone to step in but don't try and sell me that the Red Sox would feel good about losing Papelbon because Ramon Ramirez or Daniel Bard is there with his zero major league experience and recent history of wildness.

Designated Defense

If Chien-Ming Wang is inducing groundball after groundball but losing games then look for my finger of blame to be pointed squarely at Derek Jeter. Everyone else in the infield are perfectly competent defenders so it would seem right to view Jeter as the weak link, especially with a groundball pitcher like Wang on the mound. Every 5th day will be a test for Jeter and if he isn't up to the task then just as Wakefield has a designated catcher then so should Wang have a designated SS with Pena taking over in the field and Jeter playing DH.

Parting Shots

You would think Selena Roberts, with her extensive Arod research would know his age, or be able to add correctly. She recently discussed the future of Jeter with the Yankees on the show The Sports Reporters. To paraphrase Roberts, "Two years from now Jeter will be out of contract and will look at Arod who is 40 and signed on for 7 more years." Arod is 33, and is younger than Jeter who is 35. Your sources with the steroid test results may be right, but your math skills are lacking.

To those who site the age of some Yankees as a weakness then it is fair enough to do so when comparing them with the Rays. However if you must use such a comparison with the Red Sox then you do have to acknowledge that they aren't all spring chickens either. Drew, Varitek, Ortiz and Lowell are all fairly old themselves and are arguably showing greater signs of comparative decline to some of the Yankees, i.e. when healthy who is showing greater decline Posada or Varitek? Also youth is only advantageous if the younger player is equal or better than the older guy. Jed Lowrie over Jeter...I don't think so!

Enjoy Opening Day!